{"id":1099,"date":"2020-09-24T14:38:40","date_gmt":"2020-09-24T05:38:40","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.complexity.kr\/?p=1099"},"modified":"2020-09-24T14:39:31","modified_gmt":"2020-09-24T05:39:31","slug":"2020%eb%85%84-10%ec%9b%94-%ec%a0%95%ea%b8%b0%ed%8f%ac%eb%9f%bc-%ec%95%88%eb%82%b4","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.complexity.kr\/?p=1099","title":{"rendered":"2020\ub144 10\uc6d4 \uc815\uae30\ud3ec\ub7fc \uc548\ub0b4"},"content":{"rendered":"<div>\ud55c\uad6d\ubcf5\uc7a1\uacc4\ud559\ud68c\uc5d0\uc11c 10\uc6d4 \uc138\ubc88\uc9f8 \uc6d4\uc694\uc77c\uc778, 10\uc6d4 19\uc77c\uc5d0 \uc6d4\ub840\uc138\ubbf8\ub098\ub97c \uac1c\ucd5c\ud569\ub2c8\ub2e4.<\/div>\n<div>\uc62c\ud574\ub294 COVID-19\ub85c \uc778\ud574 \uc628\ub77c\uc778\uc73c\ub85c \uc9c4\ud589\ud558\uba70, \ubcf4\ub2e4 \ub9ce\uc740 \ubd84\ub4e4\uc774 \ucc38\uc5ec\ud558\uc2e4 \uc218 \uc788\ub3c4\ub85d \uae30\ud68c\ub97c \ub4dc\ub9ac\uace0 \uc788\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4.<\/div>\n<div>\ub9c1\ud06c\ub294 \ucd94\ud6c4\uc5d0 \uacf5\uc9c0\ud558\uaca0\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4.<\/div>\n<div><b>\u00a0<\/b><\/div>\n<div><b>10\uc6d4 \uc6d4\ub840\uc138\ubbf8\ub098\u00a0\uc548\ub0b4<\/b><\/div>\n<div><strong>\uc77c\uc2dc:<\/strong> <b><u>10\uc6d4 19\uc77c (\uc6d4) \uc624\ud6c4 7\uc2dc<\/u><\/b><\/div>\n<div>\n<div><strong>\uc5f0\uc0ac:<\/strong>\u00a0\uc190\uc6b0\uc2dd \ubc15\uc0ac\ub2d8 (<a href=\"https:\/\/www.nims.re.kr\/\">\uad6d\uac00\uc218\ub9ac\uacfc\ud559\uc5f0\uad6c\uc18c NIMS\u00a0\uac10\uc5fc\ubcd1\uc5f0\uad6c\ud300\uc7a5<\/a>)<\/div>\n<div>\n<div>\n<div><strong>\ub300\uc0c1:<\/strong> \ud55c\uad6d\ubcf5\uc7a1\uacc4\ud559\ud68c \ud68c\uc6d0 \ubc0f \ubcc4\ub3c4 \uc2e0\uccad\uc790 *[<a href=\"https:\/\/www.complexity.kr\/?p=16\">\ud68c\uc6d0\uac00\uc785 \uc548\ub0b4<\/a>]<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div><strong>\uc7a5\uc18c:<\/strong> Join Online Zoom Meeting<\/div>\n<div><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div><b>\ubc1c\ud45c \uc81c\ubaa9:\u00a0<\/b><strong>\ucf54\ub85c\ub09819 \ud655\uc0b0 \uc608\uce21 \ubc0f \ubc29\uc81c \uc815\ucc45 \ud6a8\uacfc \ubd84\uc11d<\/strong><\/div>\n<div><\/div>\n<div><b>\ucd08\ub85d:<\/b>\u00a0\uc548\ub155\ud558\uc138\uc694. \uc774\ubc88 \ud3ec\ub7fc\uc744 \ud1b5\ud574 \uc790\ub8cc\ub3d9\ud654 \uae30\ubc95(data assimilation method)\uc744 \uc774\uc6a9\ud55c \ucf54\ub85c\ub09819 \ud655\uc0b0 \uc608\uce21\uacfc microsimulation model\uc744 \uc774\uc6a9\ud55c \ubc29\uc81c \uc815\ucc45 \ud6a8\uacfc \ubd84\uc11d\uc5d0 \ub300\ud558\uc5ec \uc774\uc57c\uae30\ud558\uaca0\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4. \uc790\ub8cc\ub3d9\ud654 \uae30\ubc95\uc740 \uc77c\uae30\uc608\ubcf4 \ub4f1\uc5d0 \uc0ac\uc6a9\ub418\ub294 \uc218\ub9ac\uacfc\ud559 \ubc29\ubc95\uc73c\ub85c (1) \uc0ac\uc804 \uc608\uce21, (2) \uad00\uce21\uc744 \ud1b5\ud55c likelihood \uacc4\uc0b0, (3) Bayes&#8217; theorem\uc744 \uc774\uc6a9\ud55c \uc608\uce21 \uacb0\uacfc\uc758 \uc5c5\ub370\uc774\ud2b8 \uacfc\uc815\uc744 \uac70\uce69\ub2c8\ub2e4. \uc790\ub8cc\ub3d9\ud654 \uae30\ubc95\uc744 \uc774\uc6a9\ud55c \uac10\uc5fc\ubcd1 \ud655\uc0b0 \uc2dc\ubbac\ub808\uc774\uc158\uc740 \uc2dc\uc2dc\uac01\uac01 \ubcc0\ud654\ud558\ub294 \uac10\uc5fc \ud655\uc0b0 \uc0c1\ud669\uc744 \ud45c\ud604\ud558\uae30\uc5d0 \uc801\ud569\ud558\ub2e4\ub294 \uc7a5\uc810\uc774 \uc788\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4. Microsimulation model\uc740 \uc815\ubd80\uc758 \uc815\ucc45 \ubcc0\ud654\uac00 \uc0ac\ud68c, \uacbd\uc81c\uc801\uc73c\ub85c \ubbf8\uce58\ub294 \uc601\ud5a5\uc744 \ubd84\uc11d\ud558\uace0\uc790 \uc81c\uc548\ub41c \uc2dc\ubbac\ub808\uc774\uc158 \ub3c4\uad6c\ub85c \uac70\uc2dc\uc801 \uc218\uc900\uc758 \uacbd\uc81c, \uc0ac\ud68c, \uc778\uad6c \ubcc0\ud654\ub97c \uac01 \uac1c\uc778\uacfc \uac00\uad6c \ub2e8\uc704\uc758 \ubbf8\uc2dc\uc801 \uc0ac\uac74\ub4e4\ub85c\ubd80\ud130 \uae30\uc220\ud569\ub2c8\ub2e4. Microsimulation model\uc744 \uc774\uc6a9\ud558\uba74 \uac00\uad6c, \uc9c1\uc7a5\/\ud559\uad50, \uc885\uad50 \ubc0f \uce5c\ubaa9 \ubaa8\uc784\uc758 \ubc00\uc811 \uc811\ucd09\uc744 \ud1b5\ud55c \ud638\ud761\uae30 \uac10\uc5fc\ubcd1 \ud655\uc0b0\uc744 \uc2dc\ubbac\ub808\uc774\uc158\ud560 \uc218 \uc788\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4. \uadf8\ub9ac\uace0 \ud734\uad50\ub839, \uc9c1\uc7a5 \uc7ac\ud0dd \uadfc\ubb34, \uc885\uad50 \uc2dc\uc124 \ud3d0\uc1c4 \ub4f1\uc758 \ube44\uc57d\ubb3c\uc801 \uc870\uce58\uac00 \uac10\uc5fc\ubcd1 \ud655\uc0b0 \ubc29\uc9c0\uc5d0 \uc5b4\ub5a4 \ud6a8\uacfc\ub97c \uc9c0\ub2c8\ub294\uc9c0 \ubd84\uc11d\ud560 \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4\ub294 \uc7a5\uc810\uc774 \uc788\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4.<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>\ud55c\uad6d\ubcf5\uc7a1\uacc4\ud559\ud68c\uc5d0\uc11c 10\uc6d4 \uc138\ubc88\uc9f8 \uc6d4\uc694\uc77c\uc778, 10\uc6d4 19\uc77c\uc5d0 \uc6d4\ub840\uc138\ubbf8\ub098\ub97c \uac1c\ucd5c\ud569\ub2c8\ub2e4. \uc62c\ud574\ub294 COVID-19\ub85c \uc778\ud574 \uc628\ub77c\uc778\uc73c\ub85c \uc9c4\ud589\ud558\uba70, \ubcf4\ub2e4 \ub9ce\uc740 \ubd84\ub4e4\uc774 \ucc38\uc5ec\ud558\uc2e4 \uc218 \uc788\ub3c4\ub85d \uae30\ud68c\ub97c \ub4dc\ub9ac\uace0 \uc788\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4. \ub9c1\ud06c\ub294 \ucd94\ud6c4\uc5d0 \uacf5\uc9c0\ud558\uaca0\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4. \u00a0 10\uc6d4 \uc6d4\ub840\uc138\ubbf8\ub098\u00a0\uc548\ub0b4 \uc77c\uc2dc: 10\uc6d4 19\uc77c (\uc6d4) \uc624\ud6c4 7\uc2dc \uc5f0\uc0ac:\u00a0\uc190\uc6b0\uc2dd \ubc15\uc0ac\ub2d8 (\uad6d\uac00\uc218\ub9ac\uacfc\ud559\uc5f0\uad6c\uc18c NIMS\u00a0\uac10\uc5fc\ubcd1\uc5f0\uad6c\ud300\uc7a5) \ub300\uc0c1: \ud55c\uad6d\ubcf5\uc7a1\uacc4\ud559\ud68c \ud68c\uc6d0 \ubc0f \ubcc4\ub3c4 \uc2e0\uccad\uc790 *[\ud68c\uc6d0\uac00\uc785 \uc548\ub0b4] \uc7a5\uc18c: Join Online Zoom Meeting \ubc1c\ud45c \uc81c\ubaa9:\u00a0\ucf54\ub85c\ub09819 \ud655\uc0b0 \uc608\uce21 [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[2],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-1099","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-2"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.complexity.kr\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1099","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.complexity.kr\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.complexity.kr\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.complexity.kr\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.complexity.kr\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=1099"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/www.complexity.kr\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1099\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":1101,"href":"https:\/\/www.complexity.kr\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1099\/revisions\/1101"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.complexity.kr\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=1099"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.complexity.kr\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=1099"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.complexity.kr\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=1099"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}